[PAOCQ] Drew Shindell (Duke University)

“Incorporating the benefits of climate change mitigation and air quality improvements into policy”

Rapid decarbonization of the global economy alongside reductions in emissions of non-CO2 climate drivers is required to keep global warming below 2°C and, in many areas, to reach air quality targets. However, current progress is insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement or WHO air quality targets. To provide data to support enhanced action, our research quantifies multiple environmental impacts of sustainable development. We use these valuations to compare idealized choices and transformative scenarios. We find that millions of premature deaths related to fine particulate matter, ozone and heat exposure would be avoided under various low-emission scenarios. The economic value of these health benefits alone is larger than the estimated mitigation costs in China and the US and would offset much of the costs in South Asia as well. Labor and agricultural benefits have smaller valuation but are nevertheless important in many areas. However, benefits from avoided climate change due to decarbonization or improved nitrogen management occur largely in the latter half of this century. This highlights the imperative for complementary action to reduce methane – the strongest leverage we have over near-term climate change. Analyses of abatement costs and methane-related benefits attempt to provide support for optimizing methane mitigation strategies.

PAOC Colloquium —

Interdisciplinary seminar series that brings together the whole PAOC (Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate) community. Seminar topics include all research concerning the physics, chemistry, and biology of the atmospheres, oceans and climate, as well as talks about societal impacts of climatic processes.

Contact: paoc-colloquium-comm@mit.edu