[PAOCQ] Pedro DiNezio (U of Colorado)

“Ocean-atmosphere interactions critical to predict tropical climate change”

Abstract: Predicting changes in tropical climate has been marred by model uncertainty. In addition to widespread disagreement on the sign of future rainfall changes, climate models participating in recent IPCC assessments fail to simulate the observed cooling trend in the tropical Pacific – a key driver of environmental changes worldwide. Inter-model disagreement in future rainfall changes is due to the activation of a global ocean-atmosphere response triggered by a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. A subset of IPCC models simulating this response predict widespread drought over tropics, including the Amazon. The ongoing cooling in the tropical Pacific is explained by a coupled mode involving interactions between the tropics and the high latitude South Pacific. A novel ensemble of high-resolution simulations shows that this coupled tropical-extratropical mode could be excited by historical forcings, revising our attribution of recent environmental changes across the Pacific. These results indicate that improving the representation of ocean-atmosphere interactions in models is key for producing more reliable climate predictions.

[PAOCQ] PAOC Colloquium 

Interdisciplinary seminar series that brings together the whole PAOC (Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate) community. Seminar topics include all research concerning the physics, chemistry, and biology of the atmospheres, oceans and climate, as well as talks about societal impacts of climatic processes.  

Contact: paoc-colloquium-comm@mit.edu